Looking Good for Nov. 7th

November Prognostication by Ben Tripp (CounterPunch) has an ironclad list of reasons for why the Republicans will not be swept from power this November, as so many in the liberal media are predicting. Hint: they’re the same reasons that they won the last two national elections and enjoy a majority in all three branches of government. Not much has changed, so there’s no need to change tactics—tactics that only have to work on the small minority of Americans that can ever be bothered to vote in a mid-term election anyway. Thus the prediction:

“The Republicans won’t gain any seats, but they’re not going to lose more than a handful, either.”

The drums are beating, and the proud and tired of America have caught themselves muttering “death to Ahmad..killmcnukibad” under their breaths in weak moments. The proud and tired and afraid. Quivering and trembling as they drive everywhere and eat out all the time and juggle so many electronic gadgets connecting on so many magical streams of light winging to and fro that they have to buy not one, but two, fannypacks to carry and manage it all. Which they can’t, so on comes a truly staggering pharamcopia for both young old and in-between and the tireless, coddling arms of America’s favorite soporific, cable television. On the one hand, the fear is completely irrational as its staunchest believers are in any realistic sense completely removed from almost any form of danger in their corporate enclaves and gated communities. On the other, perhaps the fear is born of an atavistic realization that this entire way of life balances on a knife edge and hurtles toward its own destruction as it neglects, incorporates or obliterates everything in its way. Or perhaps not.

So, there’s fear. That’s been the number one cudgel since empires embraced democracy. It was Orwell’s hobby horse and the efficacy—and subtelty—with which it’s wielded and the damage it’s capable of doing has only increased since his time. Reading Orwell by Billmon (Whiskey Bar) these days causes more goosebumps than reading Nostradamus. A winning strategy can’t instill fear without providing an outlet, a shaft of light that slices the miasma and offers a simple, easily sound-bitable way out. And, here comes the US media—the cavalry of the 21st century, as it were—to bail out the administration and paint things all rosy for a few months. For all intents and purposes, things are turning around: the economy has turned around so hard that people are starting to actually believe it affects them; gas isn’t nearly as expensive as before … well, that pretty much covers it. Things are good and that’s that. Anyone caught telling Americans that their ray of light is a hallucination brought on by eating too many slimy cohabitants of their deep, dark pit of fear will fetch many a glowering stare and shouts of anti-Americanism, but precious few votes.

Democracy at WorkDemocracy at Work IIAnd then there’s Diebold. This company, against all that is good and right, continues to devour more and more market share in the world of electoral computing and sits firmly in the Republican corner. Their machines are eminently hackable by anyone with a mini-bar and hands. Politicians believe in a strongly stacked deck, so the Diebold preparations are an emergency backup plan, needed only in case the rampant gerrymandering of the last dozen years fails to yield the expected results. The 2002 elections saw a 98% re-election rate, drawing complaints from the losers, who saw it as a stagnation of democracy and squeals of pleasure from the winners, who saw it as a mandate from the bovine masses. Congressional Redistricting: How to rig an election (The Economist) goes into detail on how redistricting is a newly legal means of guaranteeing election results without all the cloak-and-dagger tipping of punchcards into dustbins. It works a little something like this:

“All countries, in the interests of equal representation, adjust their electoral boundaries to reflect population changes. Most democracies hand over this job to independent commissions, which content themselves with tinkering with existing boundaries. In America, in all but a few states, that idea sounds elitist and undemocratic. So every ten years, after the census, politicians in state legislatures meet to draw new voting maps which are approved by the state governor.”

Take a look at the dark green areas in the pictures: those are actual electoral districts zigging and zagging their way through divisions in opinion with the grace of Jerry Rice in his heyday. This type of cheating—as the Economist put it: “[w]eirdly shaped districts like these are signs that a crime has been committed”—crosses party lines like any other practice that keeps power in power. With the advent of snappy computer programs, these politicians can secure their seat of power for decades with a lackadaisical click or two. Many districts are so locked-in that the opposing party doesn’t even bother to run. Let freedom ring.

With all of that working against them, it’s hard to take declarations of an imminent sweep for the Dems seriously. Americans will fall into the following categories:

1. Terrified by non-existent threats and extremely reluctant to change horses in mid-stream
2. Bedazzled by ephemeral signs of progress and happy to stick with the current leadership
3. Hopelessly gerrymandered and not able to make a difference, regardless of the number of bumper-stickers or ribbons they have on their cars
4. Diebolded into voting for the candidate that they—in their secret heart of hearts—really wanted, but were afraid to vote for
5. Non-voters

Thumbs up for democracy in America! These mid-term elections are going to turn everything around!