Links and Notes for May 20th, 2022

Below are links to articles, highlighted passages[1], and occasional annotations[2] for the week ending on the date in the title, enriching the raw data from Instapaper Likes and Twitter. They are intentionally succinct, else they’d be articles and probably end up in the gigantic backlog of unpublished drafts. YMMV.

Table of Contents

• Economy & Finance
• Public Policy & Politics
• Programming

Economy & Finance

Bitcoin isn’t populist by Ryan Broderick (Garbage Day)

“Last winter, as Reddit’s r/wallstreetbets was wrecking havoc on the world of traditional finance, a lot of casual investors thought they could then move over into crypto to try and replicate the same kind of economic populism they were able to organize with shares of GameStop and AMC. And with this came an entirely new culture of crypto, based on the fundamentally incorrect belief that you can use cryptocurrency to meme yourself into a millionaire. But what is now clear from looking at market data was that Bitcoin — and by extension, the whole crypto market — was already in a pump that had started in September 2020. By March 2021, its price had increased by almost 500%. The GameStop pumpers, and the NFT bros and the warm-and-fuzzy Silicon Valley Web3 dumb-dumbs that followed, got in late and, ultimately got played. And now that all of their 2021 gains have been obliterated, they’re going to have to wait and see if they can survive the winter.”

Crypto’s Hype and Promises Were Based on Lies From the Very Beginning by Paris Marx (Jacobin)

“There’s a long history of people within the tech industry rebranding themselves as concerned advocates of change once they’ve made their money through exploitative practices they later claim to oppose, but that can’t be allowed to happen this time. All those who helped sell the crypto scam should all wear their participation as a badge of shame — and they should hope and pray their actions have only cost livelihoods, not actual lives.”

Elon Musk Does Not Care About Spam Bots by Matt Levine (Bloomberg)

“[…] the prices of tech stocks have gone down, making the $54.20 price that Musk agreed to look a bit rich. (Snap Inc., a social-media competitor to Twitter, is down more than 30% since Musk made his offer on April 13.) And the price of Tesla Inc. stock, which he is relying on to finance part of the purchase price, has also gone down, making him poorer and making the $54.20 price look even more expensive. (Tesla is down almost 30% since he made his offer.) So he is angling to reprice the deal for straightforward market reasons. But that is very clearly not allowed by the merger agreement that he signed: Public-company merger agreements allocate broad market risk to the buyer, and he can’t get out just because stocks went down.”

“Twitter could get all 229 million of its monetizable daily active users in a room and have them say “hello Elon, we are real,” and that would not convince him, because he does not want to be convinced. He wants to pay a lower price.”

“He has not lived up to any of his agreements with Twitter — the standstill, the non-disparagement clause of the merger agreement, apparently a nondisclosure agreement, the merger agreement itself — and he’s not going to live up to a repriced merger agreement unless he feels like it. An agreement with Elon Musk is worthless, as Twitter has learned over and over again.”

“I don’t know; it all seems bad. The SEC is supposedly “investigating” Musk’s disclosure failures in this deal, and I suppose these admissions will help with the investigation, but what can they do about it? Fine him? He’s so rich. Prevent him from buying Twitter? That’s what he wants! Ban him from running a public company? That is probably more drastic than the SEC (or a judge) could stomach, and will just lead to another annoying effort to take Tesla private.”

“Your clients will like good performance, but they will also like to be told that you have hedged your downside risk. It’s easy for them to just buy the index; it’s hard for them to get index performance in good times and protect themselves from crashes. If you offer them a product that does as well as the index as stocks go up, and protects them if stocks go down, they will be happy and pay you big fees. This is a hard product to make, but it is an easy product to fake, as long as stocks keep going up. Just buy the index, watch stocks go up, lie about buying puts, and send investors reports saying “look how hedged we are, if the market crashes you will only lose 12.0557450847078%!” They will never notice, until the market crashes and they lose 48.2229803388312%. Then they know you were lying.”

“And Musk is the banks’ client, not Twitter; they want to stay in his good graces by doing what he wants. A month ago, that meant committing to lend Twitter $13 billion. Now it might mean saying “oh no we could never lend Twitter $13 billion, who told you that?” That said, the banks have some important long-term reasons to stick to their commitments. Their commitment letters —promises from big banks to fund the purchase —are what got the deal done, and they are important in many other deals. Private equity firms buy companies all the time by saying “we are good for the money, here are our commitment letters from banks, they’re basically as good as money.” If commitment letters are worthless then mergers will be harder to do; it is good for the banks to have a reputation for sticking to their word. But it is also good for the banks to have a reputation for helping their clients.”

The Trump SPAC Is In Business by Matt Levine (Bloomberg)

“Thus if you are, say, a pre-revenue electric-vehicle company, a SPAC will be more attractive than an IPO: An IPO prospectus will just focus on your historical losses, while a SPAC prospectus can focus on your future profits. If the projections turn out to be wrong, well, stuff happens.”

“I suspect that, for the marginal buyer of DWAC stock, “Donald Trump is good at getting attention” is more relevant than, like, “we have demonstrated strong month-over-month user growth, built a working tech stack and implemented a robust program of compliance with relevant data privacy laws.””

Public Policy & Politics

Operation Surprise: leaked emails expose secret intelligence coup to install Boris Johnson by Kit Klarenberg (The Greyzone)

“While droves of working class Brits voted to leave the EU, venting their rage at an establishment that had, in their view, sold out their interest to bankers and bureaucrats, a coterie of influential, aggressive Brexit proponents representing a minority of elites guided the process from behind the scenes and continue to determine the outcome. These included operatives that are wholly unknown to the public, do not and never will owe their power to popular vote, and are accountable to virtually no one.”

Is This the End of the French Project in Africa’s Sahel? by Vijay Prashad (CounterPunch)

“They believe, although they are wary of going on the record, that the Europeans are worried more about the issue of migration than that of terrorism. Rather than allow migrants—many from West Africa and West Asia—to reach the Libyan coast and make an attempt to cross the Mediterranean Sea, they want to build a perimeter in the Sahel to limit the migrant movement beyond that; France has, in other words, moved the southern border of Europe from north of the Mediterranean to south of the Sahara.”

“The departure of Mali was inevitable. The country has been torn apart by austerity policies pushed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and by conflicts that run along the length of this country of more than 20 million people. Two coups d’état in 2020 and 2021 in Mali were followed up with the promise of elections, which do not seem to be on the horizon. Regional bodies, such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), have also imposed tough sanctions against Mali, which has only exacerbated the economic problems already being faced by the Malian people.”

““We live in one of the poorest places on earth,” former Malian President Amadou Toumani Touré told me before he died in 2020. About 80 percent of the people of the Sahel live on less than $1.90 a day, and the population growth in this region is expected to rise from 90 million in 2017 to 240 million by 2050. The Sahel belt owes a vast debt to the wealthy bondholders in the North Atlantic states, who are not prepared for debt forgiveness.”

Ukraine: Foolish for Finland & Sweden to Join NATO by Jan Oberg (Scheer Post)

“Here’s what the West is intellectually unable — in the midst of its boundlessly self-righteous, militarist mood to see:

“NATO’s expansion policy created — and is responsible for — the conflict.

“Russia created ­— and is responsible for — the war. There exists no violence which is not rooted in underlying conflicts. Conflict and peace literate people, therefore, talk about both.

“And if they want peace, they do not increase the symptoms — the war — they address the real cause, the conflict and ask the conflicting parties to tell what they fear and what they want and then move, step-by-step towards a sustainable solution.”

“Liberal media suggest that there cannot be a referendum because there is such a time pressure — presumably before that Russian invasion of Sweden and Finland — and, so, just make the most important foreign and security political decision since 1945 in a hurry now there is popular outrage at Russia — the beloved, necessary enemy.”

“In other words, the political creativity that was needed to run an independent policy of neutrality, non-alignment and global disarmament coupled with a strong belief in international law vanished years ago.

“It’s easier to follow the flock – particularly when, as it seems, the Social Democratic party today exists only by name.”

“The days when Sweden and Finland can – in principle, at least – work for alternatives are numbered. That is, for the U.N. treaty on nuclear abolition and the U.N. goals of general and complete disarmament, any alternative policy concepts like common security, human security, a strong U.N. etc. They won’t be able to serve as mediators — like, say, Austria and Switzerland. No NATO member can pay anything but lip service to such noble goals. NATO is not an organization that encourages alternatives. Instead, it seeks monopoly as well as regional and global dominance.”

“NATO is human history’s most militaristic organisation. Its leader, the United States of America, has been at war 225 out of 243 years since 1776. Every idea about nonviolence, the U.N. Charter provision of making peace by predominantly peaceful means (Article 1 in the Charter) will be out of the window.”

“As NATO members, Sweden and Finland not only accept but reinforce decades of hate of the Russian people, everything Russia including Russian-European culture. It will say yes to the West’s reckless, knee-jerk collective (illegal) punishment of everything Russia, the cancellation of Russia on all dimensions.”

“It is the stated purpose of the U.S. – and that means NATO – to weaken Russia militarily in Ukraine so it can’t rise ever again and to undermine its economy back home through history’s hardest, time-unlimited and unconditional sanctions – that is, sanctions that will not be lifted in a lifetime or more.”

“[…] please consider that a split and problem-torn U.S., EU and NATO have just come together for one reason: the negative policy of hating Russia and cover-up for its crystal-clear co-responsibility for the conflict that brought us where we now are. The West has no positive vision anymore. Its actions are about re-armament, threats, sanctions, demonization, the self-righteous “we-never-did-anything-wrong” and the concomitant projection of its own dark sides upon others, China in particular.”

“There were huge problems which should have been solved for humanity to survive: climate, environment, poverty, inequality, militarism, nukes, etc. They are now forgotten. Economic crisis and disruptions followed, and then came the Corona virus and took a heavy toll on all kinds of resources and energies. And, finally, now this war in Europe with its underlying NATO-created conflict.”

London and Washington are Being Propelled by Hubris – Just as Putin was by Patrick Cockburn (CounterPunch)

“Despite his bombastic incompetence, his semi-monarchical grip on power would be difficult to break, but putsches usually succeed because they are unexpected. If one did occur it may well be carried out by those who claim to be more capable of waging war than Putin and not by some pro-Western figure willing to make peace.”

““Mission creep” from a policy of defending Ukraine to one of defeating Russia has been going on since early in the war, but lately it has become more of a “mission gallop”. Western media and the public are blithe about this happening or are urging on the shift towards direct military action to take place at an even faster pace.”

Except a recent NYT editorial shows that winds might be changing. They have no remorse about their full-throated warmongering. They are trying to cover their asses when blame comes around for the inevitable escalation.

“News from Ukraine tends to be either over-covered or under-covered by the media. The over-covered news may be true but is usually selective and I find it impossible to tell if some skirmish is typical or atypical of the way the war is going. Does a Ukrainian success here or a Russian retreat mean one side or the other is winning or is there a stalemate?”

The Eurasian Road to American Panarchy and the Agorist Path to Cold War Salvation by Nicky Reid (Exile in Happy Valley)

“That pig-headed czarist pretender gave the American Century everything it needed for a stay of execution by walking directly into an obvious NATO trap in Ukraine. By launching a great big American style invasion of a darling Western quisling with all the carpet bombing, massacres, and war crimes that come with it, Putin has essentially financed an enormous flaming infomercial for the continued necessity of Atlantic supremacy in the face of evil Eurasian barbarians like him, and NATO colonized Europe is fucking buying it.”

“Contrary to their ideological namesake, Neo-Eurasianists like Alexander Dugin take the cliff notes on Eurasianism and use them to repackage Czarist imperialism as some kind of vaccine for Western primacy rather than a mirror image of it. Dugin’s ideas aren’t just immoral, they’re just plain goddamn stupid. Behind all his talk of multipolarity and anti-colonialist collaboration, Dugin is really just another run of the mill Sinophobe who seems to foolishly believe that a Berlin-Moscow axis will somehow allow Russia to dominate their neighbors to the south.”

“Nothing but racism could make a sane man moronic enough to believe that Russia could ever dominate any Eurasian Century. The original Eurasianists grasped this and saw Russia’s role as a rich cultural land bridge between civilizations as its greatest hope to preserve its indigenous character. Ironically, Russia’s place in a new Eurasian order would likely have to be similar to what Putin rightfully advocates for its cousins in Ukraine but fails miserably to embrace himself, that of a neutral confederation akin to a giant Slavic Switzerland.”

“I believe that it is this brand of imperial thinking masquerading as anti-Western resistance that has blinded Russia into believing that a dawning Eurasian Century bestows upon them the messianic superpowers necessary to crush NATO terrorists by behaving exactly like NATO terrorists.”

“Meanwhile, entire subcultures like the Shanzai movement have evolved out of China’s own black market, built on small contractors creating blatant rip-offs of Western brands that out compete the originals. This is the new nightmare, dearest motherfuckers, to create a market too decentralized for any century to own it and the sheer size of East Asia’s exploding economy could make this market absolutely fucking lethal.”

The Lawyers Who Ate California: Part I by Matt Taibbi (TK News)

“Few noticed, because this is California, where every fourth-rate character actor breaking wind makes the front pages but the inner workings of the state governing the world’s 5th most powerful economy are left to a handful of overworked reporters at the Sacramento Bee. “With all due respect to your profession,” one source unconnected to Activision quipped, “it’s kind of amazing none of you have looked under the hood here.””

“The whole case, in which enough paper was filed that a stack would surely have escaped the earth’s atmosphere, came down to a memory of one distant remark made by a person without the ability to affect the discrimination alleged. The judge, who seemed irritated by everything about the case, recommended dismissal, chiding the OFCCP for “reaching its results by making powerful, but unwarranted assumptions” instead of finding “good reason” to conclude discrimination.”

They didn’t expect anyone to check. It was an extortionary bluff.

“Amid all this, a fascinating nugget emerged. Herold reportedly sent a letter at one point to the Solicitor General, explaining and defending the OFCCP’s legal strategy with Oracle. Oracle’s “real vulnerability,” it turned out, would be if the trial was made public. This, Herold wrote, would “damage Oracle’s reputation in the industry and hinder their ability to retain top talent.””

Extortion. That’s a nice business you have there. It’d be shame if something happened to it.

The Lawyers Who Ate California: Part II by Matt Taibbi (TK News)

““Listen, if you go into any company, particularly in this field, you’re going to find some shit,” one former civil rights regulator explains. “They all want to get off cheap, but most companies are willing to take their medicine. You carrot-and-stick them to get the number up. The carrot is the press release at the end that says they cooperated and moved their policies into the correct century. Most firms will pay a lot for that.””

You just described extortion.

Finland knocking on NATO’s door. Does this look like winning? by Yasha Levine

“When Putin started this shitty war, I wrote that it was only going to strengthen American imperialism, not stop it. Now it looks like it’s about to be official: Sweden and Finland are knocking on NATO’s door. They’ll be entering a military alliance that’s at this point a textbook definition of “American military imperialism.””

“I can’t stop thinking of that Lloyd Austin clip, where he — the Secretary of Defense, the head of America’s military — can be seen smugly smirking and telling reporters — on camera and in public — that America’s support for Ukraine is about something much more fundamental than just helping Ukraine repel Russia’s attacks: it’s about crippling Russia. Watch the clip. He keeps getting “them” and “we” mixed up when talking about Ukraine and America. Pretty clear that to him there’s no real difference. This is America’s war. It’s been hoping for it. And Putin’s delivered in a spectacular way.”

“It really does seem like we are being marched into a global war — and that this path will seem very obvious in hindsight to whoever remains alive in the ruins. Evgenia and I were talking about it the other day. To sit here in California, with people going about their lives like nothing is happening, while Europe is arming up and the United States is sending weapons, keen on fighting about as a direct war with Russia as it can get away with without actually pulling the trigger…it all feels very strange and on the brink.”

Serbia Resists US-led Bullying by Gregory Elich (CounterPunch)

“In the weeks and months ahead, Serbia can expect to be confronted by escalating threats and blackmail. Vučić vows that although his government will “try to preserve peace and the future of Serbia,” it will not be easy. “I have never seen or dreamed of experiencing this in my life,” he said. “I have never seen such pressure. We face hysteria, and no one wants to hear, let alone listen. Unprecedented hysteria; diplomacy no longer exists.” [31] Western arrogance is not going to dissipate. It is in the DNA of imperialism. As a small nation, can Serbia maintain its sovereignty and independence and hold out against the combined might of the West? And what punishment will it have to take?”

First They Came for the Foreigners’ Bank Accounts by Ted Rall

“We may not have much sympathy for Russian oligarchs or people whose flashy lifestyles attract the wrong kind of attention from the police. But it’s not hard to imagine a not-distant future when the government might seize an average law-abiding citizen’s middle-class house because they espouse the wrong politics. The way things are going, we may soon see an ill-considered tweet lead to someone’s bank account being frozen and the assets redirected to some bureaucrat’s favorite cause.”

As it escalates war against Russia, Biden administration threatens war against China by Andre Damon (WSWS)

“In 2020, the World Socialist Web Site warned: “A Biden/Harris administration will not inaugurate a new dawn of American hegemony. Rather, the attempt to assert this hegemony will be through unprecedented violence. If it is brought to power—with the support of the assemblage of reactionaries responsible for the worst crimes of the 21st century—it will be committed to a vast expansion of war.””

New York Times Repudiates Drive for ‘Decisive Military Victory’ in Ukraine, Calls for Peace Negotiations by John V. Walsh (Antiwar.com)

“First of all, Russia has handled the situation unexpectedly well compared to dire predictions from the West.

“President Putin’s support exceeds 80%.

“165 of 195 nations, including India and China with 35% of the world’s population, have refused to join the sanctions against Russia, leaving the US, not Russia, relatively isolated in the world.

“The ruble, which Biden said would be “rubble” has not only returned to its pre-February levels but is valued at a 2 year high, today at 59 rubles to the dollar compared to 150 in March.

“Russia is expecting a bumper harvest and the world is eager for its wheat and fertilizer, oil and gas all of which provide substantial revenue.

“The EU has largely succumbed to Russia’s demand to be paid for gas in rubles. Treasury Secretary Yellin is warning the suicidal Europeans that an embargo of Russian oil will further damage the economies of the West.

“Russian forces are making slow but steady progress across southern and eastern Ukraine after winning in Mariupol, the biggest battle of the war so far, and a demoralizing defeat for Ukraine.”

“[…] the warhawks like Nuland, Blinken, and Sullivan have no reverse gear. They always double down. And they are now in control of the foreign policy of the Biden administration, the Democratic Party and most of the Republican Party. They do not serve the interests of humanity nor do they serve the interests of the American people. They are in reality traitors to this country. They must be exposed, discredited and pushed aside. Our survival depends on it.”

Programming

The Man Who Revolutionized Computer Science With Math by Quanta Magazine (YouTube)

“Coding is to programming what typing is to writing.”

“A distributed system is one in which your computer can be rendered useless by the failure of a computer that you didn’t even know existed.”