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3 days Ago

Switzerland’s infection rate

Published by marco on

The article So entwickeln sich die Corona-Zahlen in der Schweiz (SRF) is updated constantly. In the update from Monday, 24.01.2022, the matrix that shows the infection rate by age group was a particularly brilliant crimson.

 Matrix of Infections by Age Group

If I’m reading this chart correctly, 4.5% of 10 to 19-year-olds were infected with COVID in the week from 10.01 to 17.01. That seems like quite a lot. Switzerland has a 7-day rolling average of about 32,300 cases per day. That makes about 226,000 per week. The latest population... [More] (Wikipedia)

Clarifying efficacy percentage (vs. effectiveness)

Published by marco on

In a recent article Links and Notes for December 17th, 2021, I noted that Doctor Mark Hanefeld seems to be underselling vaccine efficacy (predicted) and effectiveness (measured).

The podcast is linked below,

Coronavirus-Update Sonderfolge: Gerüchte und Fake-News zur Impfung einordnen | NDR Podcast by NDR Ratgeber (YouTube)

At 17:30, Herr Doktor Marc Hanefeld says,

“Nehmen wir mal einfach die Zulassungsstudien zu Biontech. Da haben wir eine 95% Effektivität. Und die Effektivität ist immer im Hinblick auf symptomatische Ansteckung. Das heisst, man wird angesteckt mit dem Virus und merkt was—hat... [More]”

Climate-change activism vs. the third world

Published by marco on

I recently saw an argument that says that people like Greta Thunberg—let’s use her as a placeholder for any semi-affluent first-worlder—can argue all she wants for a massive reduction of fossil-fuel usage, but that she’s privileged to be able to do so, as there is zero chance that her life will be impacted negatively by it. The argument is that stopping fossil fuels now will leave the developing world even farther behind because they won’t be able to benefit from the economic growth they... [More]

1 month Ago

Community-based Medicine

Published by marco on

A not insignificant part of the community doesn’t want the COVID vaccine. So, they’re coming up with their own versions. I heard from one friend that he’s taking dandelion extract. He’s convinced it will help fend off COVID, so that means he thinks he’s developed a partial vaccine, at least. The picture below comes from an anti-vaxx blogger I follow,[1]

 Nyquil: just as good as the vaccine

The guy posted it without comment, other than to title it “A safe alternative to the “vaccine”“, so I have no idea whether he’s just kidding... [More]

2 months Ago

A modest proposal: What about COVID bribes?

Published by marco on

In combatting the pandemic efficiently and successfully, Switzerland is in a pretty bad place right now. It’s not nearly as bad as Austria or Germany (or a bunch of Eastern Europe, for that matter), but it’s not too far behind.

There aren’t too many reasons to believe that things will go any better in Switzerland than it’s gone in those countries—with their overflowing hospitals and people dying due to emergency-triage policies.

That’s the thing about playing musical chairs for real: when... [More]

COP26: A good time was had by all

Published by marco on

 The Edit by Mr. FishCOP26 has come and gone and many people, if not most of them, didn’t even notice. It was the 26th meeting of world leaders to discuss which measures they can all agree to put into place in order to address climate change.

A few of the other summits are famous by their city names: Kyoto in 1992, where the U.S.—by far the biggest polluter at the time—refused to ratify it; Copenhagen in 2009, where the world’s worst per-capita polluter Canada torpedoed everything so that they wouldn’t have to... [More]

COVID never went away

Published by marco on

The DACH region ([D]eutschland, [A]ustria, S[CH]weiz) is looking down the barrel of its worst COVID wave yet. We are a good 20 months into the pandemic and nearly a year after the general availability of a highly effective vaccine. To be fair, most people under 65 were not able to get the vaccine until May or June (in Switzerland, at least). However, it’s been 5 months since then.

Stuck in the lifeboat

That’s more than enough time for a civilized and well-educated public to do the right thing... [More]

3 months Ago

Why do people think the vaccine kills?

Published by marco on

I keep finding people who suggest that the vaccine is “potentially sacrificing millions of citizens like so many experimental fruit flies.” That is one of the more reasonable formulations, as the author of the article Medicine Wants to Kill You by James Howard Kunstler (Clusterfuck Nation) has included the word “potentially” to hedge his bets against the fact that many of us have not (yet!) fallen over with an acute case of death brought on by what they deem an untested—or under-tested—vaccine.[1]

They also seem to believe—and almost... [More]

Why are people not getting vaccinated?

Published by marco on

People in Switzerland are pretty much done with being vaccinated, according to the video report FOKUS: Impfbereitschaft in der Schweiz am Limit (SRF), Switzerland has managed to fully vaccinate 63% of the population (64% at the time of writing) but pretty much everyone who’s not gotten vaccinated yet is not planning to do so.

“Das Impf-Potential in der Schweiz scheint ausgeschöpft, wie die neuste Sotomo-Studie zeigt. Personen, die jetzt noch eine Impfung ablehnen, haben ihre Meinung gemacht.”

The... [More]

What is the way forward for power plants?

Published by marco on

The article Fossil fuels doomed in New York as regulator blocks new gas power plants by Tim De Chant (Ars Technica) writes,

“New York’s climate law requires polluters to account for two sources of emissions: from the plants themselves and from the natural gas supply chain. Once the latter was included—figures which in the past were nearly always ignored when determining a power plant’s pollution—the emissions quickly exceeded the DEC’s thresholds, the decisions say.”

I think that this is a good way of looking at... [More]

So…how’s that whole climate-change thing going?

Published by marco on

 The article Biden Wakes Up From The Strangest Dream That He Was Attending International Climate Conference (Babylon Bee) is a joke, but…is it really? It feels true, doesn’t it?

I am an optimistic man and, yet, we must be realistic. These people at COP26 are nearly literally all of the same people who’ve done nearly nothing since Kyoto. Remember Kyoto? Nah, no-one does. That was COP3 in 1997. Almost a quarter-century ago. Back then, it was absolutely necessary that something be done. Nothing was done.
... [More]

Mexico and Peru’s COVID lethality

Published by marco on

I was browsing the COVID situation on Corona Zahlen Weltweit yesterday and sorted by %-deaths for the first time. I was quite shocked to see that a sizable country like Mexico had a lethality of 7.6%. Peru is at 9.1%.

 Mexico COVID infection and death rates

The only countries higher than that are the tiny, island nation of Vanuatu (with only 4 infections total), Yemen, Peru, and Sudan. Yemen and Sudan are well-known to be in dire straits six ways from Sunday, with multiple humanitarian crises happening all at once, including war... [More]

5 months Ago

The vaccine-reluctant

Published by marco on

From a comment on the article, Vaccine Success, Media Misery: Is Good News Taboo in the Trump Age? by Matt Taibbi (TK News)

“I find it interesting that for all the takes on who will and who won’t take the vaccine- and why- a simple reason is commonly overlooked: For many people in good health and of a certain age group, the virus poses little to no real threat. Yes, there have been terrible cases reported in surprising victims, but as far as the data goes, they continue to be anomalies.”

This is exactly the kind of... [More]

9 months Ago

Drosten’s prediction: 100% immune (vaccinated or infected, take your pick)

Published by marco on

Virologist Christian Drosten was very good on his weekly podcast, (88) Impfmission possible by Das Coronavirus-Update von NDR Info (Apple Podcasts). In this episode, he lays down the cold facts: COVID will become endemic in the west. Get vaccinated or get COVID. There is no choice (C).

An English translation follows the German citation.

At 48:00,

Christian Drosten: Jeder wird immun werden. 100%. Nicht 70% oder 80% sondern 100% in der Bevölkerung werden unweigerlich—ich würde mal sagen, in einem Fenster das von jetzt noch so anderthalb Jahre... [More]”

10 months Ago

Is COVID-19 really over in the west?

Published by marco on

Biden recently informed the nation that things would be back to normal by July 4th—as if the virus cares.

Biden peddles national self-delusion on pandemic anniversary by Patrick Martin (WSWS)

“The language of collective loss, suffering and sacrifice, however, ignored the brutal fact that one section of American society, the super-rich, has lost nothing at all from 12 months of the worst pandemic in a century.

“While 527,000 Americans died, the billionaires increased their wealth by $1.4 trillion. While the economy... [More]”

Muddling through the misinformation

Published by marco on

The article CDC study finds c. 78% of people hospitalized for COVID were overweight or obese by Mark Crispin Miller contains the following text and the link below it.

“A study from the CDC, reported by CNBC, and yet it slipped right down the memory hole, despite—or because of—the further light it sheds on the entire COVID narrative, which has millions of slim, healthy people tightly masked and terrified of human contact.”

The article he linked, CDC study finds about 78% of people hospitalized for Covid were... [More] by Berkeley Lovelace Jr. (CNBC)

Drosten and Osterholm in Einklang

Published by marco on

Coronavirus-Update #82: Die Lage ist ernst by NDR Ratgeber (YouTube)

Drosten’s pissed. I’ve heard “irreführende” about 90 times now. He thinks there are two options: let it rip and collapse the health system or go back into lockdown (“der Holzhammer”) … Germany doesn’t seem capable of doing anything in between.

He said “private Kontakte” are definitely where infections are coming from now. It’s no longer true that “wir wissen einfach nicht wovon die Infectionen kommen…”

At 37:30, he said

“Bei keinem diesen Viren gibt es eine “Dauerwelle”. Der Begriff “der... [More]”

11 months Ago

COVID-19 updates with Herr Doktor Christian Drosten (de)

Published by marco on

Vor einem Jahr habe ich zum ersten mal von Herr Doktor Christian Drosten erfahren. Heute höre ich nahezu wöchentlich seinen Podcast mit Moderatorin Korrina Hennig auf Staatssender NDR mit. Er ist beruflich Virologe und kann sich sehr gut nicht nur über das Thema sondern auch die mit der Pandemie damit verbundenen gesellschaftlichen und politischen Themen diskutieren und verständigen lassen.

Coronavirus-Update #76: Astra-Impfstoff viel besser als sein Ruf by NDR Ratgeber (YouTube)

Bei 00:46:57 wird die berühmte Astra-Impfstoff-Studie aus Südafrika diskutiert mit Schwerpunkt... [More]

1 year Ago

The Science of Free Will and Behavior

Published by marco on

The podcast episode 134 | Robert Sapolsky on Why We Behave the Way We Do by Sean Carroll (Wondery) was a really interesting introduction/look at the science of free will as described in far greater detail in his book Behave (which I have not yet read).

 Robert M. Sapolsky's BehaveI’ve included a partial transcript of the parts that I found the most interesting. The following comes from the end of the episode, where they both did an excellent job of summarizing the preceding discussion’s points as well as pointing out logical conclusions for e.g.... [More]

Waiting it out

Published by marco on

People’s behavior vis á vis COVID-19 at this point—ten months after the onset of the virus—is like when an action movie’s hero is in the swamp with a straw in his mouth, sucking a barely adequate supply of air through it, while his pursuers are still somewhere up there, looking for him.[1]

Were they still within earshot? Would they hear him if he just came up quickly for a good, solid breath? Were they completely gone? Was he suffering underwater for nothing? They’re not still around, right?... [More]

Radio vs. Sound Waves

Published by marco on

I played Kahoot[1] the other day with the family. The quizzes are pretty wide-ranging and pretty decent fun, especially for a mix of ages. One of the quizzes concerned sound and electromagnetic waves and I tried to explain why one of the answers was incorrect “in the moment”, as it were. Concerned that my explanation had engendered rather than answered questions, I take another crack at it below.

Radio vs. Sound Waves

I was thinking again about how you didn’t seem to convinced by my fumbling... [More]

2 years Ago

The WHO on Facemasks and Pre-symptomatic Contagion

Published by marco on

Facemasks

The article Here’s what WHO says your mask should have to prevent COVID-19 spread by Beth Mole (Ars Technica) details the technical specifications for making your own facemask.

tl;dr: “you’re probably doing it wrong, guidance suggests.”

The WHO says:

  • “[…] masks should only ever be used as part of a comprehensive strategy in the fight against COVID.”
  • “WHO now recommends that healthy members of the public wear homemade or commercially-available fabric masks in places where the new coronavirus is circulating... [More]

German virologist Christian Drosten

Published by marco on

Professor Christian Drosten is a virologist working at the Charité University Hospital in Berlin. Since the beginning of March, he’s been doing an informative podcast in German called Coronavirus-Update. I’ve found him to be highly informative and factual in a world filled with propaganda, conspiracy theory and shoddy science.

The following interview with Drosten was one I found in English, which he also speaks fluently. I thought the 30 minutes, in particular, were very enlightening... [More]

China vs. the US: A Global Chronology of Covid-19

Published by marco on

The article Tomgram: Dilip Hiro, The Coronavirus Chronology From Hell by Dilip Hiro (Tomgram) provides an excellent and impartial review of the four months of history we have so far. In particular, he contrasts America’s inchoate response with the measured and ostensibly empathetic reaction of China. China reacted by increasing production capacity of PPE, masks, and ventilators.[1]

“By mid-March, the Chinese government and the Jack Ma Foundation, part of the giant corporate conglomerate Alibaba Group, had sent doctors... [More]”

Facemasks (Listening to Experts)

Published by marco on

Everybody’s talking about ‘em: facemasks. Which kind? Where can you buy them? How do you get your outsized ass to a hospital that needs them? Should you wear one? Should everybody? Which kind? In which situations?

The beleaguered CDC

The lynching party seems to be out in the States for the CDC, which is being blamed for trying to kill everyone by telling them that they don’t need facemasks. This is the same advice being given the world over by anyone qualified to have an opinion.

In the... [More]

World-o-Meter Coronavirus Tracker

Published by marco on

I’ve settled on using the Coronavirus (World-o-meter) tracker. It seems to update relatively quickly and reasonably accurately and is also well-sourced. About a week ago, they finally added two new columns: total tested and tested/million people, which helps you compare the case numbers of countries more accurately (i.e. if a country has no cases and is testing like mad, then that’s good news; if they have few tests, then you can’t really conclude anything, but it’s probably not good news).

For Switzerland,... [More]

COVID Info (Single Source)

Published by marco on

The interview The Tip of the Iceberg: Virologist David Ho (BS ‘74) Speaks About COVID-19 (Caltech) includes the following:

Why different symptoms? Mutated strains?

No.

“This virus is mutating but it has mutated very little so far. There are differences but probably they are functionally not important, so that’s not the explanation for why you see different disease courses among the infected.”

Can you get re-infected?

No.

“Only one study was formally done and it is not a human study. It’s a macaque... [More]”

COP25 in Madrid

Published by marco on

The 25th COP (Conference of the Parties) or United Nations Climate Change conference (Wikipedia) has come to an end in Madrid. Other instances of this conference were COP3 in Kyoto (the first agreement that the U.S. agreed to and which the Congress completely ignored), COP 15 in Copenhagen (where Canada and the United States worked together to torpedo any agreement) and, of course, COP21 in Paris, with the much-touted Paris Accords that Obama signed and that Trump officially left—and which all other... [More]

CO2 output per year continues to increase

Published by marco on

The article Here’s how much global carbon emission increased this year by Scott K. Johnson (Ars Technica) includes some sobering, if utterly unsurprising charts.

Not Even Close

This first chart is the most sobering one: it shows that we’ve most likely[1] slowed our CO2 production from 2018 to 2019. But we’re still increasing. That is, it’s a positive development, but not nearly enough.

 % increase in fossil-fuel usage

We need to get to zero CO2 emissions by 2050 (or maybe even 2040) in order to avoid completely nightmarish scenarios. With the CO2 we’ve... [More]

3 years Ago

The Nuclear Option

Published by marco on

The other day, I responded to I’ve read the actual reports on Chernobyl. I’ve worked in the nuclear industry by TracyMorganFreeman (Reddit) with three comments.

Nuclear is a Sane Option

The linked comment jibes with my other reading (outside of Reddit, heaven forfend) on nuclear power and safety, as well. E.g. there’s Soonish
The Lost Chapter, Advanced Nuclear Power
(SMBC). It’s a relatively clean power source with a worse reputation than it deserves—on paper.

Unfortunately, the industry that’s attached to it is an absolute... [More]